Price Linkage between Hawaii and Japanese Tuna Sashimi Markets

The objective of this research was threefold. First, the study uses a cointegration model to investigate possible long-run pricing relationships among the major landed species in the Hawaii tuna longline fishery (bigeye, yellowfin, skipjack, and albacore tunas). This analysis will determine to what extent changes in price for one species might impact prices of others in the Hawaii tuna auction market. Second, a Multivariate Markov-switching autoregressive (MS-AR) model is used to identify regime shifts and price responses in Hawaiian bigeye and yellowfin tuna prices in relation to landings of these species and to explore potential price linkages with tuna sashimi prices in Japan. It also is used to examine the possible effect on price of changing tuna quality, for example changes in fat content tied to seasonal variation in sea surface temperature in the major fishing ground. In addition, this study evaluates the market effects of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycles on tuna biomass (represented by catch per unit effort, landings, and prices). Anticipating fluctuations in abundance of the biomass caused by the ENSO cycles could help investors and fishery managers make sound decisions on expected tuna harvests in an uncertain environment. The findings of this research promotes advancements in understanding the ecosystem dynamics of global tuna fisheries by providing a vital bridge between human and natural elements in support of an ecosystem approach to management.

A related workshop, "Global Tuna Inverse Demand Estimation", was held May 13-14, 2010 at the NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science Center in La Jolla, California. The workshop agenda and presentations are published on the workshop's website.

Presentations

Pan M, Sun CH, Dale S
2010. Tuna Price in Response to Changes of Market Structure and Ecosystem Conditions - Price Linkage between Hawaii and Japanese Tuna Sashimi Markets. Global Tuna Inverse Demand Estimation Workshop, La Jolla, CA. May 13-14.